A real ensemble (Logistic Regression + Random Forest + XGBoost) trained on point-in-time driver and constructor rolling form, real grid position, and championship points share.
| Driver | Team | Grid | Win prob. | Podium prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 3* | 26.9% | 63.5% |
| George Russell | Mercedes | 3* | 17.8% | 56.1% |
| Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 4* | 7.0% | 51.7% |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | 6* | 3.6% | 24.7% |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 5* | 3.3% | 25.7% |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 4* | 3.2% | 31.4% |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 6* | 1.9% | 22.1% |
| Isack Hadjar | Red Bull | 10* | 0.9% | 7.9% |
| Liam Lawson | RB F1 Team | 9* | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| Arvid Lindblad | RB F1 Team | 9* | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| Franco Colapinto | Alpine F1 Team | 14* | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine F1 Team | 12* | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| Nico Hülkenberg | Audi | 11* | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 11* | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 14* | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac F1 Team | 19* | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Sergio Pérez | Cadillac F1 Team | 20* | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 21* | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Esteban Ocon | Haas F1 Team | 16* | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Albon | Williams | 17* | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Carlos Sainz | Williams | 17* | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 20* | 0.0% | 0.1% |
* Grid position estimated from the driver's recent average - real qualifying hasn't run yet.